KRISTEN WELKER: Steve, boy, this is a big one.
STEVE KORNACKI: Yeah, Kristen, I mean- the numbers say it. It is a tie game here…
WELKER: Oof.
KORNACKI: …weeks here before the election and it's that shift. Our last poll taken in the wake of that September debate, Harris had opened up that advantage over Trump- gone in our new poll. What goes into that? What's behind that? I think this one is revealing. This is the basic perception voters have of these candidates. Is it positive? Is it negative? Now, these are not great numbers for either one. Trump, 43 positive, 51 negative-
WELKER: Hmmmm.
KORNACKI: He’s eight points under water, you might say. But look at Harris, exact same positive score…
WELKER: Yeah.
KORNACKI: …and that negative number almost in the exact same place-
WELKER: Hmmmm.
KORNACKI: …and this is it. The last time we polled this question after that debate, Harris had really made up ground in this area. Look, she had a positive rating,
WELKER: Wow.
KORNACKI: 48 to 45, so that advantage has all in the last few weeks in our poll washed away for her. Then there are some issues, some characteristics here. These are advantages in red here that you see for Trump now versus September on the immigration and the border. We asked voters who would be better on this: in September, Trump had a big advantage- it's gotten bigger. On inflation and the cost of living,Trump’s advantage now hits double digits. And on the question of who represents change, Harris had the advantage in September- she still does, but lower.
WELKER: So significant because voters are telling us change is a critical issue for them- not the direction you want to be going in there, Steve.
KORNACKI: No, absolutely not. And there may be a reason for that, too, is- remember: she’s the VP in an unpopular administration.
WELKER: Hmmmm.
KORNACKI: Look, we asked Joe Biden's policies as president, do you think they're helping or hurting your family? Look at that. Almost 2-1 say hurting more than helping. His job approval rating is in the low 40s and then here's the twist. When you asked folks, “When Trump was president, were his policies helping or hurting?” Look at that difference. 44% say helping, 31% say they hurt. So retrospectively…
WELKER: Wow.
KORNACKI: Trump is getting some numbers here maybe he didn’t even get when he was president. And then this is, in perspective, the challenge that Harris faces. These are the modern vice presidents- like Harris- incumbent vice presidents running while their boss was still in office and just look, ‘88 George Bush Sr., his boss Reagan had nearly a 60% approval rating- Bush won. 2000, Clinton was at 60% and Gore didn't win but he won the popular vote, we can tell you that. And here's Harris, and just look how different the atmosphere is. Biden's approval rating in our poll only 43 points. She's running in a totally different atmosphere than previous incumbent vice presidents did.
